Bachelor’s and Master’s Theses

**Hintergrund:** Die Wertschöpfungskette von Nahrungsmitteln weist in der Schweiz eine X-Struktur auf. Die X-Struktur beschreibt eine Wertschöpfungskette in welcher viele Produzentinnen und Produzenten wenigen Verarbeitern beziehungswiese wenigen Händlern gegenüberstehen, diese aber wiederum viele Konsumentinnen und Konsumenten beliefern. In der Schweiz werden die Nahrungsmittel von vielen Landwirtschaftsbetrieben hergestellt. Sie entsprechen einer atomistischen Struktur. Das hat zur Folge, dass der einzelne Landwirt durch seine Produktionsmenge den Preis für das Produkt nicht bestimmen kann. Auch die Konsumentinnen und Konsumenten weisen eine atomistische Struktur auf. Niemand kann durch seine Nachfrage den Preis für die Nahrungsmittel beeinflussen. Demgegenüber stehen die Abnehmer und Händler. Diese umfassen nur wenige Akteure und ihre Entscheidungen über Mengen können die Preise beeinflussen. Dadurch kann Marktmacht entstehen. Die Politik greift in die Agrarmärkte ein, um ein besseres Gleichgewicht zwischen den Akteuren der Wertschöpfungskette zu schaffen. Aus der Kombination der Wettbewerbssituation (Anzahl Akteure und Organisation) und den agrarpolitischen Eingriffen entsteht eine sogenannte Marktordnung. Für unterschiedliche Agrarmärkte wie beispielsweise Kalb- oder Geflügelfleisch, Brotgetreide oder Zucker aber auch Äpfel oder Trauben bestehen unterschiedliche Marktordnungen. **Methodisches Vorgehen:** Die Bachelorarbeit besteht aus einer ausführlichen Literatur- und Datenrecherche zu einem ausgewählten Agrarmarkt in der Schweiz. Die Studentin oder der Student kann selber entscheiden, welchen Markt sie oder er untersuchen möchte.

Darstellung und ökonomische Interpretation der Marktordnung eines ausgewählten Schweizer Agrarmarktes.

Robert Huber rhuber@ethz.ch

Statistical analysis in R using farm level data from crop production in Switzerland.

The aim of this M.Sc. thesis is to examine how efficient is the use of inputs in crop production. There are two key questions: 1) Are there differences in the efficient use of inputs across different crop production systems (e.g. Extenso vs conventional) 2) Is efficiency improving over time or decreasing? **References** Ahovi, E., Schneider, K. & Lansink, A.O. (2021) Technical inefficiency of Dutch vegetable farms: Specific-input analyses. PLoS ONE, 16(4), e0250494. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0250494 Devilliers, E., Möhring, N., Finger, R. (2024) Estimation and comparison of the performance of low-input and conventional agricultural production systems, Q Open, 4(1). Finger, R. No pesticide-free Switzerland. Nature Plants 7, 1324–1325 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-021-01009-6

Iordanis Parikoglou (iparikoglou@ethz.ch) Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)

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The aim of this B.Sc. thesis is to provide a review of the literature on and the current state of weather insurances in European dairy farming focusing on heat and drought related damages. There are three main research questions: 1) What are the main weather risks that threaten dairy farming? 2) What are the main types of insurance solutions offered for these weather-related risks in dairy farming? 3) How the already existing insurance designs could be potentially improved? **References** Webber, H., Ewert, F., Olesen, J. E. et al. (2018). Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe. Nature Communications 9(1): 4249. Bucheli, J., Conrad, N., Wimmer, S., Dalhaus, T. and Finger, R (2023) Climate Risk Managent 41, 100525 Deng, X., Barnett, B. J., Vedenov, D. V., & West, J. W. (2007). Hedging dairy production losses using weather‐based index insurance. Agricultural Economics, 36(2), 271-280. Gisbert-Queral, M., Henningsen, A., Markussen, B., Niles, M. T., Kebreab, E., Rigden, A. J., & Mueller, N. D. (2021). Climate impacts and adaptation in US dairy systems 1981–2018. Nature Food, 2(11), 894-901.

Iordanis Parikoglou (iparikoglou@ethz.ch) Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)

Agri-environmental policies in Europe like the EU's Green Deal aim to make Europe the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050. Despite this ambition and the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise worldwide. Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). At the same time, the global demand for food, fiber and bioenergy derived from agricultural activities is steadily growing. Consequently, there is a pressing need to increase agricultural production to meet these growing demands (Bennetzen et al., 2016). This presents a possible dilemma : the imperative to boost food production may clash with the imperative to reduce GHG emissions. A proposed solution discussed in this context is the concept of decoupling production from GHG emissions (Tapio, 2005). There has been an ongoing debate regarding whether environmental impacts, such as carbon emissions and natural resource use, can be separated from economic growth (2020; Parrique et al., 2019; Ward et al., 2016). Decoupling can happen in two ways: relative, when economic growth outpaces emissions growth, and absolute, when emissions decrease even as production continues to grow. Working knowledge of R is expected. **References:** Bennetzen, E. H., Smith, P., & Porter, J. R. (2016). Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970-2050. Global Change Biology, 22(2), 763–781. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13120 Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357 Haberl, H., Wiedenhofer, D., Virág, D., Kalt, G., Plank, B., Brockway, P., Fishman, T., Hausknost, D., Krausmann, F., Leon-Gruchalski, B., Mayer, A., Pichler, M., Schaffartzik, A., Sousa, T., Streeck, J., & Creutzig, F. (2020). A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: Synthesizing the insights. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab842a Parrique, T., Barth, J., Briens, F., Kerschner, C., Kraus-Polk, A., Kuokkanen, A., & Spangenberg, J. H. (2019). Decoupling debunked. Evidence and Arguments against Green Growth as a Sole Strategy for Sustainability. A Study Edited by the European Environment Bureau EEB. Phillips, P. C. B., & Sul, D. (2007). Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica, 75(6), 1771–1855. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2007.00811.x Tapio, P. (2005). Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 12(2), 137–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001 Ward, J. D., Sutton, P. C., Werner, A. D., Costanza, R., Mohr, S. H., & Simmons, C. T. (2016). Is decoupling GDP growth from environmental impact possible? PLoS ONE, 11(10), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0164733

This master thesis aims to empirically investigate the extent of decoupling of production and GHG emissions in European agriculture at the regional level over the past decades. To this end, regional data from all over Europe is used. It uses econometric analysis and the concept of Tapio elasticities (Tapio, 2005). Additionally, the thesis seeks to identify clusters of regions exhibiting similar decoupling trajectories through transition modeling (Phillips & Sul, 2007). This approach enables the analysis of the characteristics and policy approaches of each cluster to comprehend their respective success or failure factors.

Christian Stetter(cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)

European countries set ambitious emissions reduction targets. For example, the European Union has set ambitious emissions targets. To achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), the European Commission initiated the European Green Deal with the aim of making Europe the first continent to achieve climate neutrality, reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 (Wolf et al., 2021). Agriculture is a major contributor to climate change necessitating efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the food system to align with set climate targets (Clark et al., 2020). For example, in 2021, emissions from agriculture accounted for 11% of total GHG emission in the EU. At the same time, policymakers have a wide range of tools at their disposal aimed at curbing agricultural emissions, from financial incentives to regulatory measures (Hasler et al., 2022). However, there is still considerable uncertainty about which (mixes of) policy interventions are effective in reducing GHG emissions from agriculture. One way to evaluate such policies is to test whether a known intervention has been effective in achieving its goals (Pretis, 2022). This thesis takes on another angle instead. It seeks to identify structural breaks in GHG emissions first, and then tries to attribute detected emission breaks (policy effects) that occurred during the identified time periods (Koch et al., 2022). This approach enables the assessment of the potential effectiveness of policy mixes and not only single policies. The results could potentially guide policymakers toward more effective strategies for aligning agricultural practices with climate targets set forth in initiatives like the European Green Deal. Working knowledge of R is expected. **References:** Clark, M. A., Domingo, N. G. G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S. K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I. L., & Hill, J. D. (2020). Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba7357 Hasler, B., Termansen, M., Nielsen, H. Ø., Daugbjerg, C., Wunder, S., & Latacz-Lohmann, U. (2022). European Agri-environmental Policy: Evolution, Effectiveness, and Challenges. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 16(1), 105–125. https://doi.org/10.1086/718212 Koch, N., Naumann, L., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., & Schwarz, M. (2022). Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes. Nature Energy, 7(September). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01095-6 Pretis, F. (2022). Does a Carbon Tax Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from British Columbia. Environmental and Resource Economics, 83(1), 115–144. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00679-w Skjærseth, J. B. (2021). Towards a European Green Deal: The evolution of EU climate and energy policy mixes. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 21(1), 25–41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-021-09529-4 Wolf, S., Teitge, J., Mielke, J., Schütze, F., & Jaeger, C. (2021). The European Green Deal — More Than Climate Neutrality. Intereconomics, 56(2), 99–107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0963-z

This master's thesis addresses the question whether there have been sudden changes in GHG emissions from agriculture in the EU, and if so, whether these align with policy interventions ? The goal is to utilize publicly available data of sectoral greenhouse gas emissions and state-of-the-art break-detection methodology (Koch et al., 2022) to investigate the effectiveness of agricultural policies in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe. Break detection in econometrics refers to identifying abrupt shifts or discontinuities in relationships between variables over time, often indicating structural changes or anomalies in the underlying economic processes. Through this approach, the thesis aims to identify successful policy (mixes) for reducing the climate impact of European agriculture.

Christian Stetter (cstetter@ethz.ch), Robert Finger (rofinger@ethz.ch)

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In unserer Gruppe Agrarökonomie und Agrarpolitik kommen unterschiedliche Optimierungsmodelle zum Einsatz, welche beispielsweise die Produktionsentscheide der Schweizer Landwirtinnen und Landwirte simulieren. Im Rahmen dieser Bachelorarbeit definieren Sie selber die Fragestellung aus aktuellen betriebswirtschaftlichen oder agrarpolitischen Herausforderungen für die Schweizer Landwirtschaftsbetriebe. Anschliessend erstellen Sie ein kleines Optimierungsmodell, welches exemplarisch die Fragestellung beantwortet. Sie dokumentieren und interpretieren die Resultate und diskutieren die Ergebnisse mit Bezug auf die methodischen Grundlagen. Durch die Erstellung und Nutzung des Modells lernen Sie den Umgang mit Optimierungs- und Simulationstools kennen.

Erstellung und Anwendung eines kleinen Optimierungsmodells im Kontext einer eigenen Forschungsfrage.

Robert Huber rhuber@ethz.ch

Heat stress is defined as body hyperthermia of mammals due to excessive heat loads that cannot be sufficiently dissipated. Milk production is the backbone of Swiss agriculture, and lactating dairy cows are more susceptible to heat stress due to their higher metabolic activity level. Climatic extreme events like heat waves negatively affect milk producers, especially because the depression in milk and milk component yields of cows experiencing heat stress. The relevance of climatic extreme events will increase due to climate change, amplifying problems for dairy producers. The extent of heat stress induced losses for Swiss dairy farmers is currently largely unknown. This thesis provides a novel causal assessment of the economic implications of high temperature and humidity conditions in Swiss milk production. The analysis implicitly accounts for farm-level adaptation. Literature: Bohmanova, J., Misztal, I., Cole, J. B. (2007). Temperature-humidity indices as indicators of milk production losses due to heat stress. Journal of Dairy Science 90: 1947-1956. De Rensis, F., I. Garcia-Ispierto, and F. López-Gatius. 2015. Seasonal heat stress: Clinical implications and hormone treatments for the fertility of dairy cows. Theriogenology 84:659–666. Fabris, T.F.; Laporta, J.; Skibiel, A.L.; Corra, F.N.; Senn, B.D.; Wohigemuth, S.E.; Dahl, G.E. Effect of heat stress during early, late, and entire dry period on dairy cattle. J. Dairy Sci. 2019, 102, 5647–5656. Finger, R., Dalhaus, T., Allendorf, J., Hirsch, S. (2018). Determinants of downside risk exposure of dairy farms. European Review of Agricultural Economics 45(4), 641–674 Key, N. and Sneeringer, S. (2014). Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96: 1136-1156. Perez-Mendez, J. A., Roibas, D., Wall, A. (2019). The influence of weather conditions on dairy production. Agricultural Economics 50: 165-175.

This thesis uses rich data from swissherdbook and MeteoSwiss and provides causal estimates of temperature humidity shocks on milk production using an econometric analysis. Based on this assessment, the thesis quantifies its economic relevance. The results are not only highly relevant for farmers and extension services but also provide important information for insurance companies and policy makers. This thesis is jointly supervised by the Agricultural Economics and Policy Group (Prof. Robert Finger) and the Animal Nutrition Group (Prof. Mutian Niu).

Prof. Robert Finger: rofinger@ethz.ch & Prof. Mutian Niu (mutian.niu@usys.ethz.ch)

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